Preseason Rankings
Youngstown St.
Horizon
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-11.2#329
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.7#54
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#295
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-6.6#342
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 4.7% 15.7% 3.7%
.500 or above in Conference 13.5% 26.8% 12.2%
Conference Champion 0.6% 2.1% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 35.4% 20.3% 36.9%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Away) - 9.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.70.0 - 0.7
Quad 1b0.0 - 1.10.0 - 1.8
Quad 20.1 - 2.60.1 - 4.4
Quad 31.2 - 7.81.4 - 12.2
Quad 46.0 - 9.57.3 - 21.7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 167   @ Pittsburgh L 66-77 9%    
  Nov 10, 2018 184   Akron L 70-80 17%    
  Nov 16, 2018 229   Columbia L 77-84 25%    
  Nov 17, 2018 267   @ Fordham L 68-73 23%    
  Nov 18, 2018 226   Florida International L 72-79 26%    
  Nov 28, 2018 233   @ Robert Morris L 70-77 19%    
  Dec 01, 2018 11   @ West Virginia L 64-90 1%    
  Dec 04, 2018 219   Central Michigan L 73-81 34%    
  Dec 08, 2018 211   Western Michigan L 72-80 33%    
  Dec 15, 2018 269   @ Binghamton L 70-75 24%    
  Dec 18, 2018 40   @ Ohio St. L 63-85 2%    
  Dec 28, 2018 336   Detroit Mercy W 83-82 64%    
  Dec 30, 2018 245   Oakland L 74-80 39%    
  Jan 03, 2019 235   @ Green Bay L 76-83 20%    
  Jan 05, 2019 261   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 68-74 23%    
  Jan 10, 2019 181   @ Illinois-Chicago L 73-83 13%    
  Jan 12, 2019 275   @ IUPUI L 69-74 25%    
  Jan 17, 2019 138   Wright St. L 67-80 19%    
  Jan 19, 2019 128   Northern Kentucky L 69-83 18%    
  Jan 26, 2019 281   @ Cleveland St. L 72-77 24%    
  Jan 31, 2019 245   @ Oakland L 74-80 21%    
  Feb 02, 2019 336   @ Detroit Mercy W 83-82 44%    
  Feb 07, 2019 261   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 68-74 42%    
  Feb 09, 2019 235   Green Bay L 76-83 37%    
  Feb 14, 2019 275   IUPUI L 69-74 43%    
  Feb 16, 2019 181   Illinois-Chicago L 73-83 27%    
  Feb 21, 2019 128   @ Northern Kentucky L 69-83 8%    
  Feb 23, 2019 138   @ Wright St. L 67-80 9%    
  Mar 02, 2019 281   Cleveland St. L 72-77 44%    
Projected Record 7.3 - 21.7 5.2 - 12.8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.7 1.2 0.2 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.2 3.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 3.8 4.5 1.8 0.1 0.0 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.9 6.3 5.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 16.7 8th
9th 0.2 2.0 6.1 8.1 5.3 1.2 0.1 23.0 9th
10th 2.5 5.7 6.9 6.7 3.0 0.6 0.1 25.5 10th
Total 2.5 5.9 8.9 13.4 14.0 13.8 11.0 9.8 7.2 5.0 3.7 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 86.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 45.0% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 21.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 8.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 7.8% 7.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 33.5% 33.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 17.2% 17.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 0.7% 9.7% 9.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-6 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.3
11-7 2.3% 3.8% 3.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.2
10-8 3.7% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.6
9-9 5.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 5.0
8-10 7.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.1
7-11 9.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.8
6-12 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.0
5-13 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.8
4-14 14.0% 14.0
3-15 13.4% 13.4
2-16 8.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.9
1-17 5.9% 5.9
0-18 2.5% 2.5
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%